Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. Our roads need to be fixed. "The three potentially competitive races in Virginia with Democratic incumbents could be a national bellwether," veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times. I think he is more for giving to the people.. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. Im not happy with the way things are now. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Donald Trump Won Record 16 Bellwether Counties - Swarajyamag Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. Youre not getting anybody perfect. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. By Cara Ding. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. Theres significant variability among them though. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. I dont listen to the news. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. Theyre scared. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. Biden win ends streak for US election bellwethers - The Mercury News He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. We need creative leadership, Miller said. Bellwether counties are mostly a matter of chance and are now - USAPP (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. Right now, its horrible. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. Peoples common sense level is cooked. That is a very good thing to have. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. Florida's I-4 corridor: Where presidents get picked I dont think you should take that away from me.. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. Perhaps that is why they are a true bellwether county, not fully committing to one political party over the other. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. That is, until this year. . The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. Opinion | The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How - The New York Times In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. This is a high farming community.. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. A lot of people think things are. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. Jacobs, 58, a gift store manager in Ridgway, said she voted for Obama but didnt follow politics closely at the time. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. There Are No Bellwether Counties | HuffPost Latest News This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 elections.. 'I Should Start Voting'. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. I just want Trump in. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. Two states have announced recounts. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. Im looking at both sides of it. This claim is basically absurd. Required fields are marked *. This includes personalizing content and advertising. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. What Should Fiscal and Social Policy in a Sustainable Economy Look Like? That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. Please read our comments policy before commenting. They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. This includes personalizing content and advertising. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. Medicare is becoming a joke. Were a service industry-oriented area. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties - Election Fraud at a Glance It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. Jim Hoft. Pre-performance Lobby events. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. The Epoch Times - YouTube The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. . What a Bellwether County Is Saying About 2020 Election - The Epoch Times Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. To accept cookies, click continue. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election I think we needed somebody like him.. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! This includes personalizing content and advertising. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . He pissed off a lot of people. But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Bellwether - Wikipedia Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. Martin plans to turn up at the polling booth on Election Day. He cares about the American people.. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. Ohio's Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. Another Ridgway resident said hes more enthusiastic to vote for Trump this year. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. DATA: Trump Won 95% Of Bellwether Counties, Making Biden Win This includes personalizing content and advertising. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. Federalist: 5 Ways Biden Unusually Outperformed Norms That streak, which extended back to when the county supported Harry Truman became president ended in the 2020 Presidential Election when the Donald Trump won the county. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. Weve never done that before.. I think its very political right now, honestly. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. If that date were to change, the Ohio legislature is the only one who can request to postpone or change the date of an election through legislative action.. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. Here's why. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. In addition to Florida Gov. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. And we just want that to continue. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. While Zulch said he voted for Trump in both presidential elections, he says hell have to wait and see who runs before saying who he would vote for in 2024. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. You expect the price of things to go up, thats inflation for you, Tammy said. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. SACRAMENTO . Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. Fact check: Joe Biden won most votes ever and fewest counties - USA TODAY Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. Fact check: What's true about the 2020 election, vote counting Timeline: Rep. Jim Jordan, a Systematic Disinformation Campaign, and County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections.
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